On 10 September the Governing Council of the European Central Bank raised its three key interest rates by 25 basis points: from 16 September the deposit facility rate stands at 2.50%, the main refinancing operations rate at 2.65% and the marginal lending facility at 2.90%. The decision responds to the price pressures generated by the conflict in the Middle East.
The September projections put headline inflation at an average of 3.0% in 2026, 2.5% in 2027 and 2.1% in 2028 — unchanged for the current year, revised upwards for the following two — and euro area growth at 0.9% this year and 1.4% in 2027. Risks remain tilted to the upside for prices and to the downside for economic activity.
For Italian companies operating in Hungary the move matters on two fronts: the cost of credit in euro, which is rising again after a long decline, and the spread against the forint, which remains wide — the Hungarian central bank is moving in the opposite direction, with another cut in August — and continues to shape financing and hedging decisions.
